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Fed Watch & Gathering Clouds?

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Clouds may be gathering. Should investors be worried about a storm?

Let’s look at some factors that could trigger a market selloff in the weeks or months ahead.

(Note: I'm not saying a selloff is definitely going to happen—I want you to be prepared if it does.)

Factor #1: Stocks are trading near record highs

Stocks have posted multiple record closes, and the S&P has been trading well above its 200-day moving average. (1, 2) When stocks repeatedly push new highs, it’s not uncommon to see a pullback as traders take profits.

Factor #2: Investors are watching the Fed like hawks

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Hard or Soft Landing? Watch the Sahm Rule

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Is a zombie recession coming? By that, I mean that renewed fears of a "hard landing" recession have emerged from the grave and are walking among us. Many analysts were convinced that the U.S. economy could achieve a coveted “soft landing,” but they might be overly optimistic.

What makes some economists worry about a recession?

Resist the Snake Oil

What’s the most reliable social media platform? Your answer probably varies from what your parents or (adult) children would say. (1) 

And actually, there’s no real consensus. Many of us turn to Reddit, YouTube, or TikTok to learn about money, yet we know influencers and advertisements don’t always speak the truth. Surprisingly, that doesn’t stop us from buying in to the financial advice we find on those platforms. (1)  

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Shifting Narratives

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Markets have been more volatile lately. What’s going on?

Let’s take a quick look at the factors that are influencing markets right now.

1. The bull market narrative has shifted

For months, investors have told a “Goldilocks” story of a strong economy, tamed inflation, and interest rates that were soon to drop. However, stronger-than-expected economic data and sticky inflation have now complicated the story, and investors have become wary.